Are The Rats Deserting A Sinking Ship?

Let this be a lesson to jihadist wannabes! Choose who to follow wisely. Especially if you're a foreigner looking for adventure or just a way to sate your lust for blood.

The Financial Times reported today that IS has executed 100 of it's own fighters who tried to flee their headquarters. Interestingly, those killed were foreigners who had become disillusioned.  I can say hooray for that but for them it has been too little too late!  I wonder too if maybe the Europeans have a smidgen of conscience that the hard liners don't.

The nationalities of those executed included British, French, Germans and Belgians.  It would seem they wanted to fight groups other than those to which they were assigned. The downside is their desire to fight in the first place.

However, when rebellion begins within ranks, chaos could follow and with a little bit of luck it could be the beginning of the end of ISIS.  Once word gets out that you either do as you're told or die, it puts you on an even footing with those you're there to fight.  Capitulate or die.  While hard core IS members look at death in their own way, most Europeans entered the fight for the fight perhaps more than the cause.  That would be their downfall. But it could also lead to the downfall of IS because they can't afford to lose too many within their own ranks if they can't replenish them.

If the likelihood of death by the hands of those with whom you've joined becomes widely known I would hope their ability to recruit would be greatly diminished. That IS would begin to disintegrate from within.

Now if only we would help the movement along by doing what we promised as far as properly arming the Kurds so they can mount more robust counter attacks real progress may follow. With Iraqis once again deserting due to lack of equipment poses a dilemma.  Of course they would still have their arms if they hadn't deserted in the first place.

Maybe it's time we quit playing war and actually fight it and end it.  Once and for all. Properly.

What Manner Of Men

The world has always had its share of the criminally insane.  Many have escaped unscathed because they were rulers or part of the inner circles of such leaders.

Some, as with IS, couch their brutality in the shadow of their so called religion.  I haven't read the Koran so I cannot interpret it, but even those who have seem to be in disagreement as to exactly what it champions.

I have trouble believing the interpretation IS gives it could possibly be true.  If it is, theirs is the only Deity I know of that preaches hatred and cruelty over love and kindness. Actually, it doesn't really matter what it says in reality, but rather their interpretation that has become no more than a license to kill.

In my world those who are insane surface and commit horrendous crimes against their fellow man.  In my world they are usually lone wolves who have imagined grievances that compel them to strike out.  Most often they are captured and dealt with.  What I didn't realize is that in my world there reside scores of those looking for an opportunity but savvy enough to want to surround themselves with the like minded for protection and in some warped way, acceptance.

They watch well produced propaganda on social media and flock to the middle east to join their brothers.  It scares me that so many can be so horrifically cruel and celebrate it for the world to see.  Who knew they existed in such numbers?  If we knew we refused to see it because of it's horrific nature until their band grew in numbers where it had to be taken seriously.

Now they are running rampant throughout Iraq and Syria adding ground to their "caliphate" on a daily basis by executing anyone who stands in their way. I can't help but wonder if a great number of those men could care less about the religious aspect of their organization but have played the game in order to satisfy their blood lust by killing.  Just for the sake of killing.

There is also another manner of men I wonder about.  It's those who are in positions of leadership who could band together to annihilate this movement. Do they not think that the more successful IS is the more in danger of falling victim they become? Especially those who are neighbors in the vicinity.

Then there are those in the west who as of now have only been affected from a distance, not on their home ground, at least not to the scale we see playing out.  But again, the more ground IS gains the more their capabilities improve.

With that, why do we merely tinker around the edges?  Containing them, which we aren't yet doing well, will not stop them.  They must be eliminated in order to send the message that such behavior will not be tolerated in a civilized world.  It doesn't matter where they are.  It matters what they are. It doesn't matter, either, who stops them as long as they are stopped.  If it falls to us that let's do it.

For those with the ability to stop them who choose not to do so by trying to shift the responsibility are not facing reality.  I have to ask about them too, what manner of men are they? In many ways, no better.  Maybe even worse because they appear cowardly. Cowardly leadership does not win wars. They merely hide or quit.

What If Bagdadhi IS Dead?

Unconfirmed rumors of Bagdadhi's wounding or even death have been running rampant all week end.  I'm guessing he'll be making an appearance whether he's dead or not to give his henchmen time to decide what to do next.

Of course, as savvy as the IS hierarchy has been, I'd think they'd have a contingency plan but that has to be tempered against the man's ego.  Time will tell.

For the sake of argument, let's say he is dead.  What will happen to the Islamic State?  Will there be a power struggle or mass defections to a less brutal way of life?  It's hard to say.

We saw what happened when bin Laden was eliminated.  Splinter groups went their way with much less cohesion.  Not that they did any less damage; it just wasn't as well co-ordinated.

With Bagdadhi, however, it's not a bunch of rag tag cells but rather the beginnings of an actual state. I'd guess it's survival will depend upon the fervor and single mindedness of those left behind.  It could go on as it has been or it could fall apart.

What would we have then?  The remnants of the Sunni/Shia struggle for regional dominance with a lessening of the brutality.  That's if you're willing to concede war is preferable to what IS has been waging - which is annihilating slaughter.   Would each be willing to retreat to previously held territories as long as the opposition did the same and live in an uneasy truce?  Talk about wishful thinking.  If that would happen, however, it would be a good out for us.

With the brutal slaughter curtailed we could leave the Iraqi army to revamp themselves.  The Free Syrian army could go back to trying to unseat al Assad and our advisers could exit the territory and leave the territorial strife where it belongs. Among the Islamic populations.

Again, time will tell.  If he has gone to meet his bevy of virgins, however, I'd not get too cocky and figure air strikes can win any war. It could have just been a lucky shot.

The IS Maze Versus Our Own

It hasn't been easy, this war against the Islamic State.  Even though Turkey now seems ready to let the Iraqi Kurds help the Syrian Kurds other aspects of the war aren't going too well.

We've been put on notice that Wednesday is dooms day for the next American and we've air dropped a load of arms meant for the Kurds right into IS territory.

It gets worse and we here in America should take note for there is a lesson in it. Sunnis in Lebanon are now leaning more in support of the IS cause because of the same old reason that allowed the movement to get a foot hold in the first place.  The exclusion of Sunni Muslims in government.

Hezbollah is gaining a strong foothold within Lebanon's borders much as Hamas has done in Gaza. The alternative is to look at the radical groups and none have the victories to tout more than IS.  While having enough on their hands as is for the time being, I'm sure the IS leadership is pleased with the turmoil in Lebanon.  Will even the moderate Sunni's join forces with them?  It has happened elsewhere and could again.  That means another front for the war and still too few to fight it.  Even with the Kurds valiantly providing boots on the ground they are outnumbered and remain out armed.

Could this repeat itself here?  Could a group that feels marginalized be pushed to the brink of extremism?  You see the ground work in places like Ferguson, MO.  The protests have far surpassed reason.  The truth of what happened the night young Michael Brown was killed by a police officer is still muddy yet that didn't quell the violent protests.  Led, in many cases, by rabble rousers from out side the community whose only purpose was to create and perpetuate unrest.

They've succeeded for the anger still is palpable, deserved or not.  We need to address this.  We need to quell the radical outliers who want only more tragedy to avenge tragedy. The ones who want to foment hatred for the sake of hatred and nothing more.  This is how movements begin and trying to solve the problem with political correctness is an exercise in futility.

The symptoms need addressed before the fever hits. Can we do this in our country before we turn into a nation of malcontents and the worst of us reign?

We can if we have the will.  The will to understand ethnicity and economic conditions play a part yet have the courage to enforce that which is right and that which is wrong without caveats. It must be the first priority if we are to remain a civilized nation.

Exclusion, whether great or small, breeds discontent and there is quite enough of that going around these days.

You Can't Have It All Ways!

Unlike this country where the President wants things his way or no way Turkey's Erdogan has played it differently. He really wants to be the new Caliph with Turkey as the center of the Caliphate. Like us, he prefers to let others do his fighting while playing both sides.

Where we once thought of him as a suspect ally he has proven to be a turncoat by disallowing coalition forces, such as they are, from using his air bases and turning a blind eye toward those crossing his borders to join IS.

I suspect he wants to let IS fight his war than he'll take care of IS in lieu of joining forces with them. Good luck.

He's at war in a lesser sense with the Kurds because they want their own country and in my opinion should have it.  On his eastern border, however, their territory is in Syria so he lets his tanks sit on his side of the border while the Kurds fight desperately against IS for the survival of Kobani.

Further west Kurdish territory is partially in Turkey, partially in Iraq and partially in

Iran so he is taking advantage of the chaos to bomb those Kurds while they too are fighting IS. The poor Kurds are surrounded by hostiles, yet they remain democratic and pro western.  Unfortunately they're finding that allegiance has gained them nothing.

No arms as promised.  No support from the Turks and sporadic air support from the coalition.

So now what?  The Kurds are mad.  Really mad and beginning to rebel against the Turks. That puts them in an even more tenuous position because I'll bet it will effect our promise to provide them with more appropriate arms.  Will Turkey crumble?  Probably not but they'll be forced into some kind of armed conflict to quell the angry Turks leaving al Assad in Syria even freer reign than he already has.

Now back to IS.  While the media is focusing on Kobani IS is inching ever closer to Baghdad. We've been assured that Baghdad won't fall.  The Iraqi forces won't allow it yet two outlying bases and the accompanying arms have fallen to IS in the past few days.  Suicide bombings within the city limits are on the increase.

Will Baghdad fall?  Have we kept Ebola out of the U.S.? If it does Erdogan can forget his ambitions, IS will reign for at least a time then we'll turn our attention to a nuclear Iran.

This is why when one goes to war the goal should be to win.  Unequivocally. You can't have it all ways.

 

Trouble With The Truth

Why is it politicians, of any party, feel it is okay to lie to the people they serve?  Granted there are times when it's better we not know some things to avoid panic but for the most part we deserve the truth.

The biggest and most consequential lie of the Bush administration was weapons of mass destruction.  The fall out of having pushed that lie may never be put to rest.

This administration seems to be doing it's share too.  Benghazi for starters.  All the denials that preceded departmental investigations - the IRS, the Veterans Administration, Obamacare.  Carefully, calculated lies.  Why?  To obscure departmental short comings? Or is it mere contempt for the intelligence of the public? Do they really think no one will notice?

I can't help but wonder where this mind set originates and why it's so difficult to eliminate.  Perhaps the most egregious set of untruths come from the President when he promises and fails to deliver to countries who had once been our friends.  The most recent and worst is saying Turkey will allow us to use their airports to launch strikes against ISIS. Wrong.  No such agreement has been made.

Did Susan Rice think that by saying so Turkey would be embarrassed into to doing so?  Well, whoever was behind the statement miscalculated.  Again.

The only thing that comes from such actions is a demeaning of this country and its leadership and the establishment of mistrust among our allies.  And triumph from our enemies.

If we don't want our boots on the ground in massive numbers arm the Kurds like we promised.  If we don't, there will be no boots what-so-ever.  IS will continue revising it's strategy, and like yesterday when they over ran another Iraqi Army training center, our arms will continue to fall into their hands. That's not the type of arming we should be doing.

It certainly cannot be our intent.  Can it?

What Will We Do When Baghdad Falls?

We need more than a genie on a flying carpet to get out of this mess.  Baghdad, if you've looked at the latest maps of the IS progression, is surrounded.

Despite assuring us Baghdad will not fall, circumstances make that assumption suspect. We know the Iraqi army isn't up to snuff.  We know more and more suicide bombings are occurring within the green zone and we know that the surrounding towns have had their water supply shut off. They will fall like dominoes. All IS has to do is wait.  Keep nibbling around the edges.

The coalition which was such a triumph a few weeks ago seems to have disappeared. Is anyone other than the President calling the shots in this conflict?

If we weren't going to fight this war to win it we should have stayed out of it.  Sorry aid workers and journalists.  You go into dangerous territory at your own risk. Some will tell us IS is not a risk to our national security because they have neither the weaponry nor the means to get to our shores.  Perhaps they don't if you're looking at them sending an army.

But if you look at our porous border, and our malcontents they are very much a threat.  It is obvious whoever is leading their strategic planning knows what they're doing.  I wonder where they were trained.  Because of that I don't believe for one minute that somewhere within their ranks plans for doing serious damage to the U.S. are not in the works.  No matter whether or not we hear chatter.

What is equally as troublesome is the political process that is buzzing around us.  Business as usual.  Dirty campaigns.  Republicans still without a message and a President more intent on reaping the praises of a Gwyneth Paltrow than working with his generals on how to defeat this enemy.

It seems as if to him it's a game he didn't want to play and is now bored by it.  It's not going his way and nobody else wants to play by his rules. So he walks away from it leaving those we promised to help hanging.

I'm very sad at what we've allowed ourselves to become.  Disinterested, disrespected and inept. Whats even more sad is I see no way for matters to change for at least two more years.  By then who knows what will be left. If anything.  Anywhere.

Why Is Turkey Playing Chicken?

I have to take back everything positive I said about Turkey a few posts ago.  And wonder why they're playing chicken with us with the very existence of Kobani at stake.

Is there no human decency left in the world?  Come on people, sort out your territorial issues later.  The peril of leaving IS run amok is far worse than who has possession of a piece of land - the Turks or the Kurds!

After all, Kobani is within spitting distance of the Turkish border.  They even have tanks at the ready yet they insist on playing political games.  If they send in ground troops so must we.  True.  I  don't disagree with that but they are there, we aren't and the city is hanging on by its fingernails!

They want a no fly zone.  We won't order it up. Heck we won't even order up enough air strikes to dissuade IS as they keep moving that black flag ever closer to the center of Kobani.  Turkey understands the risk yet they're willing to risk an increased IS presence because they worry about the Kurds, at some time, going back to demanding their own country.  Well, there may be nothing for any of them to claim if they don't quit playing games.

They also need to realize and accept that the U.S. effort is being micro managed by an abysmally unqualified individual and that isn't going to change for at least two years.

Biden was right even if unpolitical in saying our allies are a large part of the problem, including Turkey. They may not be letting people cross into Syria at the moment to join IS but they're doing a far cry less in keeping IS away from their border.  Never mind the human cost paid by thousands of people who want no part of this mess.

We're stuck with Obama for two more years.  The world doesn't have to be.  It's time for them to put aside their own petty interests and collate among themselves to get the job done.

If for no other reason than it's the decent and humane thing to do.  Don't follow in our footsteps.  To do so is to fall prey to the most inhumane enemy the world has faced in decades. Perhaps we can't do better.  I have higher hopes for the rest of the world.

I Owe Turkey An Apology

Not so long ago I wondered what kind of trade off the Turks made with IS to get their diplomats back.  Whatever it was it worked. The diplomats were freed.

Now, they're doing the work we should be doing. Plus they're going to allow foreign units to utilize their bases.  This is huge.  They're going to help the Kurds.  Where is every one else who has promised?  They're going into Syria but they won't stop with IS, they'll go after Assad.

It's too late for what ifs, but if we had punished Syria for crossing the 'red line' and armed the Free Syrian Army back when it first became an issue, a lot of what's happening now could well have been avoided.  IS would not have been able to get a foothold.

If we hadn't insisted on passing arms through the still tenuous Iraqi government, the Kurds wouldn't have to be hanging on by their nails. If we'd quit exempting ourselves from putting boots on the ground maybe others would be willing to follow suit.

What's notable to me is the Turks got their people out before taking action.  Maybe we should have tried harder to get ours out.  The failed rescue only emboldened the enemy.  One more hapless action by the no-longer-so-great-Satan.

As of right now we're being given credit for the coalition even if they're stumbling all over one another.  If Turkey takes the lead, and they are militarily capable of doing so, it will be interesting to see if the middle east participants begin to follow their lead rather than ours.

As long as IS is eliminated, I don't care who gets the credit. If Turkey leads the way we may also get Assad. That would help ease the over all situation.

The fight might turn strictly regional.  I wonder if Turkey would join forces with Israel to deny Iran their centrifuges.  It would be in both their national interests. And ours.  Perhaps we could reshuffle our interests out of the region to more friendly and less war like nations.

At some point after all that if they want to continue bickering among themselves as to who has the correct interpretation of Islam, let them go at it. Never mind the earth will be scorched beyond repair. That would be their problem.  They will have done it to themselves.

The biggest irritation to me would be watching the administration swaggering to the mic with a self congratulatory smirk claiming victory over impossible odds.  After all, the legacy must be protected no matter the cost.

We Doze, People Die

I realize there is a lot going on in Washington these days and little of it good.  The incompetence of cabinet level people is enough to take your breath away. Maybe we should have cleaned our own house before engaging in another war no matter how justified.  But we have.

We also know that our own house won't be cleaned until after the November elections if then.  Some things can't wait.  Or can they?  I haven't seen the President call Congress back to get his war vote nor have I seen them volunteer to do so.  Heanven forbid their vote may come back to haunt them in future elections.  Who cares what's right?

I hear great bragging about this marvelous coalition we've pulled together - mostly with our own enemies.  They aren't in the fight because of the inhumanity of the IS but because of their own governmental and territorial interests.

Yes.  They'll fly with us but will only hit targets of their choice, not ours.  Like us they won't put boots on the ground.  I can't help but wonder about the commitment.  Well, you say, many of them have said they would send modern arms and armor to the Kurds, the only ones willing to fight.  On the ground.  They're still waiting.  Why?  Don't give me a big song and dance about delivery logistics.  It's not that.  It's politics.  Anything that can slow involvement is being done.  After all, elections loom.

In the meantime what about the Kurds?  They're still fighting with weapons from the Soviet era.  Give them an A+ for keeping what should be in a junk pile functional.  Such as it is against the modern weaponry of IS.

The IS is annoyed with the air strikes you can be sure but they're flicking them off like an irritating fly.  They've taken cover among civilians just as Hamas did against Israel.  Of course they're basically the same.

They continue with the ethnic and religious cleansing attacking villages, hospitals and schools.  Recruiting mere children.  Beheading women they don't sell into slavery. Sending more and more refugees into Turkey who like other neighboring countries will soon find themselves on overload.

Yet our politicians continue the opposition bashing campaigns while ignoring the state of the world.  No one is pressuring the coalition to step it up, the action is in "negotiations" with Iran.

The entire world could use some leadership.  It won't happen here with this administration.  Do we really have two years to wait for someone to emerge?  The Kurds, the only ones really willing to fight, don't.

Busy Skies Over Iraq

Not to take away anything positive that's being done in the fight against IS, I must say the grand coalition has it's weaknesses.  While growing in numbers daily, they all seem to be doing the same thing.  Bombing in Iraq.  Not Syria.

There are of course reasons for this.  Syria hasn't asked for help.  Iraq has. Even though the news reports tell us the border between Iraq and Syria has been obliterated by the IS, for all practical purposes it does still exist and Syria is a sovereign nation.  To bomb in Syria requires a UN mandate which will not be forthcoming because you can be sure Russia will veto any such effort.

Why are we there?  Because of the alleged imminent plot by the Khorasan to sneak non metallic bombs on airplanes.  It's a stretch but it will do.  Of course they threatened France in the same way yet they aren't using it as an excuse to go into Syria.

That leaves us with crowded skies over Iraq, only ourselves over Syria where the IS headquarters are located, and still no boots on the ground.

To say the least, this is another ill thought out exercise which is likely to end in futility.  No one wants to send in boots if we're not willing to do so or won't admit that we actually have.  So here's another war being run, if you can call it that, by vauge goals, obfuscation and no certainty of how to get out of it when things go awry.

The salute isn't the only thing this President gets wrong.