The Purple Finger Of Fate

The Arab Spring is evolving into the unexpected as winter approaches. Back when the Muslim Brotherhood raised it's head in Egypt, some like Sean Hannity, worried about what would happen if they took over the countries as elections were held.  Others, far more actually, assured us they were too unorganized to be of any consequence.

Well, strange things have been happening.  The Islamists are winning.  Of course, being Islamist countries some form of Islamism is going to win.  What's happening, though, is that the secular opposition is losing.  This has the potential of being dangerous.  Especially if there is a return to strict Shariah law.  Women's rights will be decimated.  Degrees of repression and radicalism will be the order of the day.  Yet this is what the people are voting for.

Why?  It's worth thinking about because we're going to have to deal with transforming governments for some time to come.  Consider just two of the countries, Egypt and Libya.  Both secular, both considered friends of the U.S.  Yet both were ruled by the most cruel and repressive of leaders.  What has secularism done for them?  Look, too, at Iran and Syria where the monsters are still in place.

So what do you do when suddenly free to choose what type of government you want?  You go back to your roots.  Islamism.  Not thinking about how restrictive and repressive it is by nature and in the end nothing will have been gained.

I think we're about to see a classic example of unintended consequences.  The struggle for freedom and economic stability may be lost as quickly as the current despots were run from power.  It's a frightening scenario.

It will be a time when diplomacy will require untold amounts of patience and prudence.  How long will it take for the Muslim world to recognize the answers lay in a moderate middle is any ones guess.  Meanwhile, all we can do is watch and wait.  It's likely not to be to be pretty.